Significant Rainfall Set to Negatively Impact Indonesia's 2026/27 Coffee Harvest – CoffeeTalk

Coffee supplies from Indonesia are anticipated to contract in the 2026/27 season due to significant rainfall negatively impacting flowering and fruit development, particularly in major Robusta-growing regions. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects Indonesia’s green coffee production to reach 11.38 million 60-kilogram bags, reflecting an 8% decrease from the prior year. The most considerable reduction is seen in Robusta, with FAS Jakarta forecasting production at 10 million bags, a decline of 1 million bags from 2025/26. This decline follows heavy rains that disrupted flowering in southern Sumatra and parts of Java.

In contrast, Arabica production is expected to experience a minor recovery, anticipated to reach 1.38 million bags. However, flooding and landslides in regions such as Aceh and North Sumatra have inflicted damage on farms, roads, and processing infrastructure, leading to elevated transport costs.

Declines in export are also projected, with Indonesia’s green bean exports forecast at 7 million bags, a decrease of 11%. The United States continues to be one of Indonesia’s top five coffee markets. On the domestic front, consumption is expected to see a slight increase to 4.83 million bags, as roasteries and processors maintain their purchasing activities.

In summary, the adverse weather events in Indonesia are likely to tighten global coffee supplies, especially affecting Robusta availability, shipping costs, and the dynamics of export competition.

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