Are the Ebola Outbreaks in the DRC and Uganda a Danger to the Coffee Trade? – CoffeeTalk

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has raised significant concerns among global health and migration organizations, with 695 cases and 138 deaths reported thus far. While African governments, supported by organizations like the WHO, are implementing containment measures, strategies such as total border closures risk negatively impacting domestic economies. Past experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic showed that such closures severely affected smallholder farmers by disrupting trade and limiting access to essential inputs, leading to food security concerns.

Despite the challenges, the coffee industry managed to endure due to resilient demand and a forward-contracting trading system, although coffee prices have seen fluctuations owing to various structural and environmental factors, including a shift in consumption from out-of-home to at-home scenarios, putting pressure on coffee shops. Additionally, adverse climate events have affected harvests in recent years. As of 2026, the outbreak presents a potential threat to Uganda, the world’s sixth largest coffee exporter. However, a significant player in the region, Neumann Kaffee Gruppe, has not yet felt the impacts of border closures on trade.

A researcher noted that extended border disruptions could ultimately impact coffee productivity by limiting access to necessary inputs. This effect may not be immediate but could influence prices and availability in the future. Current forecasts indicate that coffee prices are normalizing after sharp increases at the beginning of 2026, with Arabica coffee trading around $2.56 per pound, reflecting the lowest prices since late 2024, primarily due to favorable harvest projections.

Current data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service suggests that Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia, the top three coffee exporters, are expected to experience bumper harvests in 2026/27. Colombia’s output is projected to rise by 7.2% thanks to beneficial weather, leading to increased exports, while Vietnam anticipates a production spike to 32.5 million bags. Brazil forecasts a record harvest after years of low output, with Arabica exports expected to soar by 30%.

Despite these promising forecasts, exporters remain cautious amid low stocks and uncertainties related to a potential El Niño event. Recent market dynamics indicate that if any production shortfalls occur, they will likely be mitigated by global trade adjustments. Meanwhile, Robusta prices have stabilized recently, yet the situation in Uganda does not suggest a trend toward higher prices. The International Coffee Organization notes that while African coffee exports dropped over 22% in April, this decline is largely due to last year’s unusually high shipment levels from Ethiopia, rather than a new unfavorable trend.

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