Brazil Expects to Achieve Record Coffee Exports in Upcoming Crop Year but Impact of Growing El Niño Remains Uncertain – CoffeeTalk

Brazil is anticipated to achieve a record coffee export volume in the upcoming crop year starting in July, driven by expected all-time-high production figures, as stated by Carlos Santana, an executive with EISA, the Brazilian branch of global commodities trader ECOM. Coffee farmers and traders are closely monitoring the El Niño weather anomaly, which could potentially impact future crop yields. Santana indicated that by July or August, Brazil’s coffee shipments could increase significantly, benefiting from favorable market conditions that currently feature higher prices. He estimates exports of green coffee could reach approximately 50 million 60-kg bags.

In 2024, Brazil previously reached a record export volume of 46.3 million bags. EISA estimates indicate that about 5% of the Brazilian coffee crop for this year has already been collected, and projections for the 2026/27 season suggest a production of 75.8 million 60-kg bags.

These Brazilian shipments are expected to assist in replenishing coffee stocks in consuming countries, which have been at historically low levels due to past production shortfalls in major coffee-growing nations that have led to spikes in coffee prices. However, the impact of El Niño remains uncertain. Despite the possibility of beneficial effects, such as warmer conditions preventing frost, Santana cautions that excessive heat could negatively affect the critical flowering stage of the coffee plants, typically occurring around September or October. He noted that the outcomes of El Niño will likely influence farmers’ selling strategies in the future; if the conditions turn out to be more detrimental than advantageous for coffee cultivation, this could lead to a reduced selling pace among producers.

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