Vietnam's Coffee Exports Look to Deliver Significant Growth Towards Year-End – CoffeeTalk

Vietnamese coffee is poised for significant growth in export volume and prices as the year progresses. This is driven by low inventories, global supply disruptions due to weather, and increasing product standards among importers. The Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (Vicofa) reported that in the first eight months of the year, Vietnam exported nearly 1.7 million tonnes of coffee, generating over 6 billion USD. While export volume increased by over 10% year-on-year, the export value dipped by 11.2% due to declining prices.

Key markets continue to be the EU and the US, although Asian markets, especially China, are emerging as growth areas. Price forecasts for coffee suggest an upward trend, influenced by climate change and adverse weather conditions affecting production in Brazil, alongside impending impacts from El Niño in Asia.

An essential development is the upcoming European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), effective December 30, which may boost exports of Vietnamese green coffee beans that meet its requirements. Currently, about 30% of Vietnam’s coffee-growing area is certified for sustainable practices, crucial for compliance with these market standards.

Vicofa’s Chairman, Nguyen Nam Hai, emphasized that around 35-40% of Vietnam’s coffee supply can meet EUDR requirements, leading to heightened buyer interest and potential export volume increases of 8-10%. EUDR-compliant coffee is expected to command prices approximately 50 USD per tonne higher than conventional varieties, significantly enhancing export revenues.

However, the market still faces challenges, with projected increases in production from major coffee-producing countries affecting price dynamics. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts a surplus in global coffee supply, which could exert downward pressure on prices, despite the expected rise in demand for processed coffee products. Overall, the potential for Vietnamese coffee to achieve a 9 billion USD export target this year hinges on navigating these complex market conditions effectively.

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