Weather Concerns Loom Over Ethiopia's Coffee Harvest – CoffeeTalk

Brazil’s supply recovery in the coffee market is highlighted as it sees stronger exports, while Ethiopia, the world’s fifth-largest arabica producer, enters a pivotal phase in its 2026/27 harvest season. Although climate forecasts predict below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures for much of Ethiopia, which typically raises concerns for production, the southern highlands, known as Ethiopia’s coffee belt, have experienced favorable weather. Reports suggest these areas received near-normal rainfall, mitigating fears of a nationwide crisis.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects Ethiopia’s 2026 coffee crop to reach approximately 11.6 million 60-kilogram bags, with exports of around 7.8 million bags, indicating stable production and growth potential for exports. While general production levels seem stable, market discussions pivot on quality issues, particularly impacting premium coffee regions like Yirgacheffe, Gedeb, and Guji. Weather irregularities during flowering stages have resulted in localized yield reductions of 5% to 7% in these areas, underscoring a growing market tension between adequate overall production and the scarcity of high-quality washed coffees.

Market dynamics indicate that while commercial and lower-tier coffees are readily available, premium-grade varieties face tighter supply and increased competition, leading to heightened prices for top-tier lots. As Ethiopia’s harvest season approaches, which typically begins in October and escalates through December and January, market participants will transition from forecasts to assessing actual harvest outcomes.

If forecasts hold true, Ethiopia is set to produce a robust crop that maintains export levels. However, any impact from weather-related stresses on yield or quality could result in tight allocations and increased premiums for sought-after washed coffees from premier districts. This evolving situation between Brazil’s increasing volume and Ethiopia’s quality focus positions their markets uniquely within the specialty coffee landscape.

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