Brazil Predicts Record Coffee Production Increase for 2026 Harvest – CoffeeTalk

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) has projected an 18% increase in coffee production for the 2026 harvest, anticipating a total of 66.7 million bags, which would set a new historical record surpassing the previous high of 63.08 million bags in 2020. This optimistic forecast derives from Conab’s second report on the 2026 coffee harvest, which indicates a 3.9% increase in the area devoted to coffee cultivation, reaching 2.34 million hectares, and an expected rise in average national productivity to 34.4 bags per hectare.

Contributing factors to this growth include the biennial production cycle typical for coffee, the introduction of new production regions, and favorable climatic conditions. Specific projections for Arabica coffee suggest an output of 45.8 million bags, reflecting a substantial 28% increase, while production of Conilon coffee is expected to rise slightly by 0.8% to 20.9 million bags.

Key producing states will also see significant growth, with Minas Gerais anticipated to lead at 33.4 million bags, a remarkable 29.8% increase attributed to effective rainfall distribution. Espirito Santo, Brazil’s second-largest producer, is expected to experience a 3% growth to 18 million bags, alongside noteworthy increases in output from Sao Paulo and Rondonia.

On the export front, Brazil exported 11.5 million bags of coffee (weighing 60 kg each) from January to April 2026, marking a decrease of 22.5% compared to the previous year due to reduced domestic stocks. However, expectations are positive for recovery in exports during the latter half of the year coinciding with the onset of the new harvest.

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