Beneficial Brazilian Rainfall Sees Relief In Coffee Prices – CoffeeTalk

Coffee prices in Brazil have been pressured by the news of beneficial rainfall in the country, with July arabica coffee (KCN25) down -4.10 (-1.17%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) down -55 (-1.24%). The strength of the Brazilian real has initially moved higher due to the real’s 8-1/4 month high against the dollar, discouraging export selling from Brazil’s coffee producers.

Coffee prices remain generally weak due to Brazil’s ongoing coffee harvest, with arabica posting a 2-week low last Friday and robusta falling to a 10-month low. Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced that its members reported the coffee harvest was 13.7% complete, compared with 13.6% at the same time last year. Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year’s comparable level of 37% but right on the 5-year average of 35%.

Robusta coffee has support after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1-month low last Friday of 5,177 lots. Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past six weeks due to concerns about higher coffee production and ample supplies. On May 19, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags.

In a bearish factor, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-1/4 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 and were modestly below that high at 846,291 as of last Friday. Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are bullish for prices. Robusta coffee has support from reduced robusta production, with Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropping by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years.

The USDA’s biannual report on was mixed for coffee prices, with a projected increase in world coffee production in 2024/25 to 174.855 million bags, a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags, and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags.

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