El Niño Projected to Have Significant Impact on Brazil's Coffee Harvest by up to 20% – CoffeeTalk

El Niño is projected to significantly impact Brazil’s coffee harvest, potentially reducing its anticipated record yield by 15% to 20% due to extreme heat and erratic rainfall. The Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic) expressed concerns that these adverse weather conditions could lead to a decline from an expected 66.7 million 60-kilogram bags of arabica and canephora beans, which include robusta and conilon varieties.

Abic’s executive director, Celirio Inacio da Silva, noted that while these losses would generally align with typical agricultural expectations in a normal year, the current climatic scenario makes this situation particularly concerning. Fortunately, coffee farmers are in a better position than in previous El Niño incidents, having enhanced their practices to cultivate more resilient crops through technological advancements and improved irrigation systems. These advancements have equipped growers to mitigate climate variability and ensure efficient planting and harvesting.

Despite improvements, El Niño is anticipated to disrupt the biological cycle of coffee plants, notably affecting the flowering stage in the second half of 2026. Experts warn that conditions such as excessive heat and irregular rainfall may lead to inconsistent flowering, which complicates harvesting and compromises bean quality. Wellis Caixeta from Minas Gerais-based cooperative Expocacer highlighted that irregular ripening due to these factors poses significant challenges.

For the current 2023/24 period, projections indicate that Brazil’s coffee output might drop from an initial estimate of 58.8 million to 54.2 million bags, even with arabica benefiting from a positive biennial cycle, where productivity saw only a slight increase, contrasted by a decline in conilon productivity. Unusual rainfall patterns in southeastern Brazil raise additional concerns, leading to detrimental effects like delayed harvests and premature cherry drop, thereby damaging quality.

In the Espirito Santo region, Brazil’s largest producer of canephora coffees, growers have reported irregular weather patterns, including prolonged dry spells and intense bursts of rainfall. President of Cooabriel, Luiz Carlos Bastianello, cautioned about the risk of heat extending into early 2027, potentially impairing the developmental phase of coffee beans. While the natural biennial cycle is contributing to a 15% expected reduction in conilon production, the full effects of El Niño on future seasons remain uncertain.

On a more positive note, conditions in northern Brazil are faring better, with Rondonia state eyeing a record harvest of 3 million bags, surpassing Conab’s forecast. The robusta crop in Rondonia is not expected to face the same challenges as arabica regions, thanks to extensive irrigation and cooling systems implemented by growers. Juan Travain, president of Caferon, emphasized that robusta plants benefit from these adaptations, while many arabica farms continue to struggle without similar irrigation facilities. Overall, while advancements in agriculture are helping mitigate some effects, the looming challenges from El Niño present serious threats to Brazil’s coffee industry.

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