2026/27 Coffee Year Could Yield 8.9 Million Bag Surplus – CoffeeTalk

The global coffee market is poised for a significant recovery, with Rabobank projecting a surplus of 8.9 million bags for the 2026/27 coffee year, driven primarily by a resurgence in production from Brazil. This forecast estimates global production at 181.7 million bags, exceeding consumption of 172.8 million bags. This marks a dramatic turnaround from the tight supply conditions experienced since 2021, characterized by production shortfalls and heightened demand post-pandemic, which previously drove Arabica futures to record highs.

Rabobank emphasizes that the anticipated surplus will mainly be utilized to replenish depleted inventories, as market players have followed cautious purchasing strategies due to limited availability and high prices. The replenishment is expected to occur across warehouses, destination inventories, and supply pipelines that have been historically low.

Brazil is central to this optimistic outlook, forecasting a production of approximately 73.3 million bags, buoyed by favorable weather and improved investment from growers who capitalized on higher prices in previous years. This follows a more balanced production in 2025/26, where supply barely outstripped demand, preventing significant inventory rebuilding.

The impending increase in production is already impacting futures markets, with coffee prices trending downward as traders anticipate larger supplies. Though speculative fund liquidation has accelerated this price decline, volatility could still arise from weather fluctuations and adjustments in market positions.

Moreover, Rabobank notes the resilience of global coffee demand despite high prices, with an expected consumption increase to 172.8 million bags in 2026/27. If consumers can continue to absorb higher costs, the surplus could diminish faster than projected, illustrating a potentially transformative shift in the coffee industry.

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