Coffee Prices Dip At Expectation Of Record Bumper Crop From Brazil – CoffeeTalk

Coffee prices are experiencing pressure, with May arabica coffee down by 0.65% and May ICE robusta coffee down by 0.69%. Recent drops in prices have coincided with predictions of a record coffee crop in Brazil. The Marex Group Plc projected a record Brazil coffee crop for the 2026/27 season at 75.9 million bags, while StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags from an earlier forecast of 70.7 million bags. Furthermore, StoneX anticipates that the global coffee surplus will increase significantly, reaching 10 million bags in 2026, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025, marking the largest surplus in six years.

The robusta coffee market is also facing bearish conditions due to increased exports from Vietnam, the leading robusta producer. Reported exports from Vietnam for the January to March period of 2026 rose by 14% year-on-year, reflecting a strong export performance. Projections indicate that Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2025/26 season could hit a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons, which adds to downward pressure on robusta prices.

Additionally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting global coffee supply chains, leading to increased shipping rates and costs for importers and roasters. However, below-average rainfall in key Brazilian coffee-growing areas also supports prices; recent data shows Minas Gerais received only 47% of its normal precipitation last week.

While robusta coffee supplies are tightening, supporting its prices—ICE robusta inventories fell to a 1.25-year low—rising arabica inventories are pressuring arabica prices further. Reports indicate that arabica coffee inventories also increased to a six-and-a-quarter month high, contributing to the bearish sentiment.

Recent export data shows that in February, Brazil’s green coffee exports fell by 27% year-on-year, and coffee exports in March also saw a significant 31% decline year-on-year. Despite these declines, coffee prices faced sharp sell-offs earlier in the year, particularly arabica, which reached a 16.75-month low due to optimistic harvest forecasts. According to Conab, arabica production in Brazil is expected to rise significantly, alongside robusta, underpinning overall future production expectations, which Rabobank predicts will reach a record 180 million bags in the upcoming season.

Despite the upward production trends, the International Coffee Organization reported slight declines in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, and the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service anticipates world coffee production will continue to expand, particularly for robusta, while slightly decreasing for arabica in the near future. Projections for ending stocks in 2025/26 indicate a decrease, reflecting tighter global supplies.

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