Breeding New Hope For The Future Of Coffee In A Climate-Changing World – CoffeeTalk

Coffee is a global industry that is deeply intertwined with multiple economies, cultures, and geopolitical landscapes. As the climate warms, the ideal conditions for growing Arabica coffee are shrinking rapidly, with projections suggesting that by 2050, suitable land for Arabica cultivation could be halved, threatening supply amidst growing demand. In response, some innovators are working to save the popular beverage by fundamentally changing how “coffee” is produced, but industry giants and pre-competitive collaborations are determined to stay the course — accelerating efforts to develop climate-resilient coffee varieties to safeguard future production.

Coffee is one of the most under-invested crops in the world, with the vast majority of coffee growers being smallholder farmers, who contribute 60 percent of global coffee production volume. Most smallholders operate in lower-income countries that lack the resources to invest in crop development. Many coffee-producing nations face the choice of allocating funds toward coffee varietal development or investing in critical infrastructure and services for citizens. As a result, today’s coffee growers are essentially recycling the same genetic material cultivated for the past 100 years.

World Coffee Research (WCR) works to bridge the investment gap by providing scientific solutions securing a diverse and sustainable supply of quality coffee for growers of every size. Its approach involves a blend of traditional and modern techniques, combining low-tech breeding methods with advanced data science to unlock the largely untapped genetic potential of coffee plants. A 2023 WCR assessment estimates that $452 million in annual investment is needed to keep pace with growing coffee demand. This figure starkly contrasts with the investment in other crops, such as maize, which has over 1,300 maize varieties released globally between 1995 and 2015, while fewer than 30 new coffee varieties emerged in the same period.

The collaborative nature of WCR’s efforts ensures that advancements in coffee breeding are accessible to farmers globally. This holistic approach supports national governments in integrating modern breeding tools and creates a more equitable distribution of resources and knowledge. WCR’s Innovea Global Arabica Breeding Network is a consortium funded by over 200 coffee companies worldwide that comprise WCR’s membership — that tests coffee varieties in diverse agroecological environments across 10 countries. This multi-environment testing exposes the plants to various environmental pressures, allowing researchers to identify and release the most resilient varieties suited to different regions.

Industry players bridging the R&D gap include WCR partner Nestlé’s new Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NIAS), which is also helping drive this innovation by developing high-yielding coffee varieties with superior climate and disease resistance. One notable product of NIAS’s research is the development of Star 4, a high-yielding Arabica variety known for its large bean size and resistance to coffee leaf rust, a major disease threatening coffee crop globally. Starbucks offers financing opportunities to help farmers access the capital and resources they need to adapt and thrive in a changing climate.

The combined efforts of organizations such as Nestlé, Starbucks, and WCR aim to pave the way for a more resilient and sustainable coffee industry. As a tree crop, coffee trials tend to span decades, meaning that most of the varieties being developed by WCR and its partners will reach market penetration in the 2030s. In the next three to six years, WCR will release about a hundred new varieties, with the expectation that they will reach market absorption in the 2030s.

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