Potentially Historic El Niño Could Pose Risk to Vietnam's Coffee Crops – CoffeeTalk

Vietnam’s 2026/27 robusta coffee crop is anticipated to see a slight increase in output, attributed primarily to replanted areas achieving more stable yields, according to Thai Nhu Hiep, vice chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association. While he refrained from providing a personal production forecast, he referenced the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s expectation of 32 million 60-kilogram bags in the upcoming crop year, with robusta coffee comprising the majority.

Hiep cautioned against the significant threats posed by El Niño, particularly concerning Vietnam’s central highlands, which are susceptible to extreme weather during key crop cycles. He emphasized the urgent necessity for Vietnam to adapt to climate change to safeguard coffee production, highlighting that it is no longer a distant concern. In response, the coffee industry is working alongside farmers to develop a specialty robusta profile that focuses on quality, aiming to enhance the recognition and value of Vietnamese coffee beans.

This strategy is designed to facilitate farmers in capturing a larger share of the value across the coffee supply chain. Additionally, Vietnam is investing in data infrastructure to comply with the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which mandates that importers verify their commodities were not sourced from recently deforested areas. Hiep views the EUDR not just as an export barrier but as a chance for Vietnam to establish a more transparent, sustainable, and competitive coffee supply chain in the long term.

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