Will Coffee Face A Price Crash Similar To Cocoa? – CoffeeTalk

Some coffee industry experts are comparing the coffee market to the cocoa market, predicting a drop in coffee prices similar to the significant crash experienced by cocoa after reaching an unprecedented high in 2024. These discussions were prominent at the recent National Coffee Association convention in Tampa, Florida, where Carley Garner, a commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, expressed her strong belief that coffee is following the same trajectory as cocoa, noting, “I would be shocked if it did not happen.”

The price dynamics of cocoa are telling; it surged to over $12,000 per ton in December 2024 due to poor weather conditions affecting supply in producing regions. However, just over a year later, cocoa prices plummeted more than 70% as consumer preferences shifted toward less expensive chocolate products and manufacturers adapted their offerings. Conversely, arabica coffee also saw a rise attributed to adverse weather disrupting production, with prices hitting a peak in February 2025, notably influenced by tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s presidency. Nonetheless, projections indicate a substantial recovery in production from Brazil, a leading coffee producer, which is expected to drive prices down significantly this year.

Garner predicts that coffee could settle at around $2 per pound by year’s end, attributing high prices to decreased demand. Additionally, Avere Commodities’ analyst, Digby Beatson-Hird, forecasts an even steeper decline to $1.80 per pound, with current market closure at approximately $2.93 per pound. A national survey conducted by the NCA revealed that 61% of U.S. consumers are taking measures to reduce their coffee spending, with some opting for cheaper alternatives or brewing coffee at home instead of frequenting cafes. Nonetheless, the overall number of coffee drinkers has remained constant.

In response to market shifts, industry leaders like David Behrends of Sucafina SA have noted a loss of market share for pricier mild arabicas, such as those from Colombia and Central America, in favor of more affordable robusta beans. The demand for coffee stagnated in 2025, with no growth reported compared to the historical annual increase of 2.3% prior to the pandemic. Carlos Mera, chief coffee analyst for Rabobank, anticipates that the recent drop in coffee prices will eventually resonate with consumers, potentially reviving demand by a projected 2% in 2026.

Despite predictions of a record coffee crop in Brazil, experts maintain that this influx may not significantly alleviate market pressures. Brazilian farmers, well-capitalized, are likely to adopt a gradual selling strategy, retaining some volumes to replenish their stock, thus impacting overall market dynamics.

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