It Could Take At Least Half A Year For Brazilian Coffee Shipments To The US To Recover – CoffeeTalk

Brazilian coffee exporters, represented by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), anticipate that it will take a minimum of six months to replenish the coffee shipments to the United States that were hindered by a 40% tariff imposed by the Trump administration. Since the tariff was enacted in August, exports to the U.S. plummeted by 51.5%, equating to a loss of approximately 1 million bags of coffee. Following the recent announcement of the tariff’s suspension—excluding soluble coffee—the price for March arabica futures declined by 1.91% to $3.6945 per pound.

This tariff-induced decrease critically impacted certified stocks of Brazilian arabica on the New York exchange, which have now dropped almost entirely, totaling just 19,951 bags—down 96% from the previous year when stocks were at 477,306 bags. Throughout the tariff-monitored months, certified stocks of Brazilian offerings fell by 87%, leading roasters to exhaust the existing Brazilian inventories and seek alternative sources due to the prolonged tariff dispute.

With the tariff lifted, there is an expectation for a quick resumption of shipments for outstanding contracts; however, the recovery is complicated by logistics challenges. Coffee shipments will now contend with port and vessel space competition from other agricultural products, such as soybeans, adding to the logistics bottleneck. Ferreira highlighted that it will not be feasible to ship an additional 400,000 to 500,000 bags monthly, projecting that full recovery could extend until the end of the crop year in June 2026.

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