New Tariffs Lead To US Retailers Raising Prices On Coffee – CoffeeTalk

Coffee prices in the US have been impacted by the global trade war, with Brazil’s 50% tariff on products coming into the country on August 1. This has led to increased prices for coffee products, such as Starbucks ground coffee at Publix and Folgers coffee. The prolonged run-up to these tariffs may be influencing prices by retailers drawing down their stocks of existing pre-tariff products.

Increased tariffs are part of President Donald Trump’s claimed plan to rebalance trade to boost domestic manufacturing and promote national security. However, given the lack of coffee-growing in the United States, it might be one of those costs Americans have to swallow unless they want to switch to tea for their morning beverage.

Geographically, it is challenging to grow coffee, as it requires mountainous and humid areas. Hawaii has produced 50,000 bags of coffee annually, while Brazil produced 64.7 million bags in 2024-25. In total, Brazil has been buying more American products than the United States has bought from Brazil for years. The tariff on Brazil’s orange juice concentrates that supplement Florida’s orange juice production has been exempted from tariffing, but Brazil is getting the highest tariffs of any country because of a political beef Trump has with the South American country.

Trump in a July 9 letter to the current Brazilian president cites the ongoing trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro as the impetus behind the 50% tariffs on Brazilian products. Bolsonaro is being prosecuted in his country after he tried to stay in power despite vote totals to the contrary. A July 31 statement from the White House decried the government’s case that the Trump administration believes should not stand.

The current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has brushed off Trump’s tariffs so far. Coffee prices, despite occasional sales, show no signs of going down.

Coffee shop owners are questioning how much they can shield their customers from the increasing costs of unroasted bean due to three factors: climate change, more expensive shipping and logistics, and local region volatility. Before tariffs, unroasted bean costs had been rising due to other pressures, some manmade and some nature’s whims. Brazil experienced unaccustomed weather volatility, including a frost, during its winter season, which triggered a lower volume output for Brazil, leading to higher coffee prices in the rest of the world.

Climate change, more expensive shipping and logistics, and local region volatility are some of the factors at play. Nick Vorderman, who plans to expand his coffee business, Sunday Motor Co., to West Palm Beach next year, has been able to hold prices steady by paying for batches affected by climate change and tariffs. However, those lots are coming to an end, and the corrected market prices now reflect these factors.

China, the world’s biggest coffee consumer, made Brazil’s coffee even scarcer after the weather event, buying up all they could, driving up the price of coffee all over the world even more. This scarcity and price increase has drawn the interest of big investment houses, which see money to be made in buying and selling coffee futures. Angelo said that with the leveling of high tariffs on Brazil, many coffee shop owners will start looking at alternatives for sourcing coffee.

Currently, about 25% to 35% of Oceana’s blends are from Brazil because it is such a sweet coffee. Coffee from Honduras and Colombia are probably getting more palatable pricewise. With the leveling of tariffs on Brazil, many coffee shop owners will start looking around at different coffee sources, including Central American countries and African countries like Rwanda and Uganda.

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