Rains May Have Come Too Late For Brazil’s Coffee – CoffeeTalk

Rain is falling across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions after one of the driest periods on record, but it may be too late for trees to fully recover before the new crop is harvested. Coffee prices have hit multi-year peaks over the past two years, driving up the cost to consumers worldwide and forcing some roasters to change blends and lower the quality of the coffee they sell. Production problems in Brazil and Asia due to adverse climate conditions have meant supply has lagged demand for three years. If the next crop in Brazil comes in below potential, global supplies may again come in below demand.

Farmers and agronomists in Brazil say the 2025 crop will be problematic even if the rains result in a good flowering in the coming weeks. Procafe gathers data on the state of coffee fields in Minas Gerais, which reported soils in the southern part of the state lacking 250 millimeters (9.84 inches) of water when compared to ideal levels. Agronomists believe that coffee trees that have suffered from the dryness would have to use energy once the rains return – producing leaves instead of fruits.

Many farmers in the state of Sao Paulo opted to prune trees because they were in such bad condition. However, this means that the trees will not produce beans in the first year after pruning, only getting back to production in 2026.

The historic Brazil drought hurt even farmers using irrigation systems, as many water streams went dry. Grower Mario Alvarenga estimated a similar fall in production for 2025. If precipitation returns to average levels, the trees would bounce back, but most people have reduced their crop forecasts for next year, but not by much. Coffee trees are resilient and can recover if the climate is conducive.

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