High Moisture and Early Flowering Linked to El Niño Sparks Concern for Brazil's Coffee Harvest – CoffeeTalk

Brazil’s coffee regions are experiencing early flowering this year due to unusual weather patterns linked to the El Niño phenomenon, raising concerns over the quality of coffee beans. Typically, coffee harvesting in Brazil, the largest global producer and exporter, occurs during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter, a season characterized by dryness that aids in field work and efficient drying of beans before shipment.

However, this season has been marked by erratic weather, with rain disrupting harvesting processes in June and July, consequently delaying shipments. This disruption has contributed to a recent increase in arabica coffee prices in New York. Experts, including Guilherme Teixeira from the coffee co-op Cooxupe, indicate that the high moisture levels can lead to fermentation issues and bean losses, creating quality concerns. Greg Oddo, a weather strategist at Sucafina, notes that these harvest delays align with market price fluctuations, suggesting a potential decline in the quality that consumers typically seek.

Despite these concerns, Oddo predicts that the overall size of the coffee crop will remain consistent, with an expectation of record production surpassing 75 million 60-kg bags. The unusual rains have also promoted unexpected flowering in July; normally, the peak flowering occurs around September and October. Jose Donizeti Alves, a plant physiology professor at the Federal University of Lavras, emphasizes that the increased flowering may lead to competition among various sizes of fruit for the tree’s energy, potentially causing early fruit drop. However, Oddo sees a silver lining in this high moisture scenario, as it may help maintain the trees’ health and enable successful fixation of fruit on the branches.

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