Ethiopia Aims To Become World’s Second-Largest Coffee Exporter By 2033 – CoffeeTalk

Ethiopia, the birthplace of coffee and home to over 10,000 distinct varieties, is set to become the world’s second-largest coffee bean exporter within eight years. Despite being one of the most traded commodities globally, Ethiopia currently earns relatively little from this vital industry. The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA), established in 2016, has initiated several projects to promote the marketing and development of the coffee industry. Since 2019, numerous initiatives have been introduced to revitalize aged coffee trees, many of which have exceeded 45 years of age. Millions of coffee seedlings have been planted across the country in recent years, reflecting a strong commitment to sector growth.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has projected that Ethiopia will rank among the top coffee exporters in the coming years. According to ECTA’s recently released Coffee Sector Transformation Strategy, Ethiopia is expected to become the second-largest producer and exporter of coffee by 2033. The strategy outlines a roadmap indicating that the area dedicated to coffee plantations will more than double by that year, increasing from an estimated 2.2 million hectares this year to 4.7 million hectares by 2033. Productivity is also anticipated to rise, with yields expected to increase from 7.5 quintals per hectare in 2024 to 15 quintals per hectare. This will result in a projected 433% increase in total annual production, reaching 4.4 million tons compared to 833,000 tons in the previous budget year.

The export volume of green coffee beans, both washed and unwashed, is expected to rise from 298,000 tons in the previous budget year to over 2.2 million tons, marking a 645% increase relative to the 2023/24 budget year. By 2031, it is anticipated that half of Ethiopia’s total coffee output will be exported. Interestingly, Ethiopia’s coffee industry is unique in that it is not only the origin of the coffee tree but also the largest consumer of the commodity. For instance, in the 2023/24 budget year, which ended on July 7, 2024, 64% of the annual coffee production was consumed domestically.

The strategic document highlights the increasing demand for premium coffee as a promising opportunity for the Ethiopian coffee industry. It emphasizes the government’s commitment to establishing a responsible organization within the industry and its efforts to enhance growth through agricultural initiatives and improved marketing strategies. The new strategic plan aims to expand the industry through technology-driven commerce and digital agriculture initiatives, anticipating significant export earnings in the coming years will enhance productivity, supported by high-quality, value-added products. Key factors considered in the document include ensuring fair prices to boost revenue, as well as promotional initiatives that showcase Ethiopia’s vast potential for specialty coffee and competitive value-added products, which are crucial for increasing export earnings.

By 2033, the strategy projects that Ethiopia’s exports of green coffee could generate USD 10.4 billion, representing a target of more than six times the previous year’s earnings of USD 1.4 billion.

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