Brazilian Government Body Predicts Slight Increase In Coffee Production Despite Recent Declines – CoffeeTalk

Brazil has increased its forecast for its coffee production in 2025, with the government body Conab projecting a 2.7% increase in output. The revised projection is largely attributed to higher productivity in conilon coffee, a variety of robusta. Conab’s forecast for production is expected to be the largest ever recorded for a year of low biennial production. The biennial cycle of production of arabica coffee sees output alternate between years of low and high output.

Brazil is forecast to produce 18.7 million bags of conilon coffee, a level that Conab said would be more than 28% above average. The agency cited “regular climate” conditions during critical crop phases, which contributed to positive flowering and a “good quality” of fruits per rosette.

Arabica production in Brazil is expected to decline by 6.6%, with a projected harvest of approximately 37 million bags. Conab also reported a marginal expansion in the total area dedicated to coffee cultivation, which is expected to rise by 0.8% to 2.25 million hectares. However, the area in production is projected to fall by 1.4% to 1.86 million hectares. The area under development is set to increase by 12.3%, consistent with patterns observed during biennial downturns.

Between January and March, Brazil exported 11.7 million 60kg bags of coffee, down 1% from the same period in 2024. The drop was linked to constrained domestic stocks during the initial months of 2025, following “record” exports in 2024. Despite the lower volume, export revenues rose significantly due to high global coffee prices, reaching $4.1bn in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 68.9% surge year-on-year.

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