Brazilian Coffee Growers Anticipating A Strong Arabica Harvest This Year, While Expecting A Decline For Conilon – CoffeeTalk

Arabica coffee growers in Brazil are optimistic about this year’s harvest, projecting it will meet or slightly exceed the yields expected for 2025. In contrast, canephora coffee growers in Espirito Santo anticipate a decline in yields. According to forecasts from Brazil’s national crop agency, Conab, arabica production in 2025 is anticipated to decrease by 9.7% to 35.8 million 60-kilogram bags, while canephora output is expected to rise by 42% to 20.8 million bags. Simao Pedro de Lima, president of the cooperative Expocacer, highlighted that arabica farmers in the Cerrado Mineiro region could see a good performance if weather conditions remain favorable, with predictions of average yields ranging from 28 to 32 sacks per hectare for the 2026 harvest. However, he cautioned that many variables must be considered before final estimates can be established. Agronomist Jonas Ferraresso noted that recent rains have positively impacted arabica plants, although uneven rainfall may affect some producers. He predicts that this year’s output will align with last year’s or show slight improvement. Conversely, Luiz Carlos Bastianello, president of Cooabriel, stated that conilon coffee output is expected to decrease compared to last year due to physiological challenges faced by the plants in this cycle, which align with the biennial production pattern. He emphasized that while new crops may increase overall production, they won’t fully compensate for the off year effect on conilon coffee plants.

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