Brazil Expects A Nearly 5% Increase In Its 2025 Coffee Harvest – CoffeeTalk

Brazil, the leading producer of coffee globally, anticipates a 4.3% increase in its coffee harvest for 2025, expecting to yield 56.5 million 132-pound bags. This expected harvest would mark the third-largest in Brazil’s history, only surpassed by the years 2018 and 2020, as reported by the National Supply Company. Despite 2025 being classified as a “negative biennium,” a period which typically sees lower returns from coffee plants, productivity gains are projected to offset a slight 1.2% decline in cultivated area, now approximately 4.5 million acres.

The increase in output is primarily attributed to a significant rise in Robusta coffee production, anticipated to reach a record 20.8 million bags, which is over 42% higher than in the previous year. This growth stems from favorable weather conditions and enhanced yields. In contrast, Brazil’s production of Arabica coffee, which it predominantly cultivates, is expected to decline by nearly 10% this year, translating to about 35.7 million bags. The decrease can be ascribed to Arabica’s natural low-yield cycle, a reduction in cultivated land, and inadequate rain during critical growth phases. Notably, Brazil’s top coffee-producing state, Minas Gerais, reported a more than 9% drop in Arabica output, while São Paulo also experienced significant declines; however, minor increases were observed in the Cerrado and specific areas in Bahia.

On the international trade front, Brazil has notably exported 17% less coffee from January to October compared to the same timeframe last year. Nevertheless, the country achieved record revenue of $12.9 billion from these exports, surpassing previous year’s totals, driven by higher global prices. Although world coffee production is expected to increase, significant price reductions are not anticipated due to the lowest global inventories in 25 years, estimated at 21.8 million 132-pound bags. This low inventory level puts strain on supply and helps to sustain coffee prices in the international market.

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