Advantageous Rainfall Helps 2026 Coffee Projections – CoffeeTalk

Coffee production in Brazil is set to reach a record high, driven primarily by increased rainfall in Minas Gerais, the country’s foremost coffee-producing state. In the past two months, rainfall in Minas Gerais has surpassed last year’s totals by 16-20 inches, significantly benefitting the crop. The period from late December 2025 to late February 2026 saw rainfall ranging from 400 to 600 millimeters (16 to 24 inches), whereas previous year’s precipitation was light and sporadic.

As a result of this abundant moisture, the Brazilian agricultural forecasting agency, Conab, anticipates a coffee production of 66.2 million bags in 2026, marking a 17.2% increase from the previous year. The arabica variety is expected to see a production boost to 44.1 million bags, reflecting a remarkable growth of 23.2%, while robusta production is projected to rise by 6.3% to 22.1 million bags. Notably, Brazil currently dominates global coffee output, contributing over one-third of the world’s total in the 2024-25 period.

Vietnam, as another key player in global coffee production, particularly in robusta, is also experiencing positive forecasts, with its production set to increase by 6% to 29.4 million bags, the highest level in four years. Rabobank estimates world coffee production will reach 180 million bags in the 2025-26 year, up 3% from the preceding year.

However, the heavy rains in Minas Gerais have not only been advantageous; late February brought severe downpours that caused destructive flooding and mudslides in Minas Gerais, as well as neighboring states like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Concerns have emerged regarding potential harvest delays and quality degradation if beans are not harvested timely. Despite these worries, market trends indicate that the anticipated volumes of coffee production are overshadowing the quality concerns, reflected in the prevailing coffee prices.

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