US Retail Coffee Prices See Sharpest Price Increase Of This Century – CoffeeTalk

US retail coffee prices have seen the steepest year-on-year rise of this century, with a consumer price index for coffee rising 21% YoY, the fastest pace since 1997. This is due to tariffs on imports from Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of higher-end arabica coffee, which are expected to compound the effects of a global supply shortage. Ground coffee reached a record $8.87 per pound at groceries in August, and a consumer price index for coffee rose 21% YoY, the fastest pace since 1997.

Global coffee markets have soared over the past year due to poor harvests in major exporting countries driving down production. For the US, whose roasters rely on imports for almost all of their supply, costs have increased further since President Donald Trump declared a 50% tariff on Brazil in July. Coffee shipments from Brazil into the US have halved in the year to date, with the decline accelerating in August when coffee exports from Brazil were down more than 75% from August 2024. Imports from other big producers, such as Vietnam and Colombia, have failed to fill the gap.

Surplus inventory is cushioning the blow, but at some point, if Americans keep drinking coffee at their usual rate, these stocks also have limits. Coffee futures prices have already been climbing as climate change brings increasingly erratic weather to Brazil and Vietnam. Poor harvests in both countries have tightened supplies worldwide. The US grocery industry has been pushing for exemptions to tariffs on products that cannot be affordably grown domestically.

Coffee consumers might not have felt the full impact of tariffs yet, as coffee shipped from the port of Santos in Brazil takes up to 20 days to reach US ports, after which it must be roasted. Much of the tariff impact may not hit retail shelves until October or November.

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