The 50% Tariff On Brazil Could End Up Sending More Coffee To China Instead – CoffeeTalk

The Trump administration’s steep import tariff on Brazilian coffee is expected to reshuffle trade routes for beans from the world’s top grower and exporter, benefiting China and incentivizing traders to look for indirect routes into the U.S. A 50% tariff on some Brazilian products, including coffee, will begin on August 6. The move will challenge commodities traders and Brazilian coffee exporters to find buyers for the roughly 8 million bags sold to U.S. coffee processors every year.

At around 25 million bags per year, the U.S. is the world’s largest coffee consumer, with a third of that coming from Brazil through bilateral trade worth $4.4 billion in the 12 months ended in June. The possible rerouting of the massive volume Brazil usually sends to the U.S., similar to the entire production of high-quality coffee grower Ethiopia, could benefit a major Trump rival: China. More Brazilian beans may be bound for China because of trade ties between the two nations, both members of the BRICS group, and after the first Trump administration disrupted trade, said Marc Schonland, an independent advisor to the U.S. coffee industry.

Coffee consumption is surging in China as young professionals drop tea to seek a higher caffeine boost. Brazil is its main supplier, exporting 538,000 bags to China in the first half of 2025. Coffee consumption has grown around 20% per year for the last 10 years in China, and per capita coffee consumption doubled in the last 5 years, according to industry data. More Brazilian beans could also head to the European Union, where they face no tariffs, said Logan Allender, head of coffee at U.S. roaster and distributor Atlas Coffee Club.

Trade experts see possibilities for exporters to try to dodge the tariffs by exporting Brazilian coffee to other countries and from there to the U.S. “It will add a bit of logistics costs, but brings down the (tariff) effect to a max 10% to 15%,” said Debajyoti Bhattacharyya, commercial vice president at agricultural commodities firm AFEX Ltd., adding that countries such as Mexico or Panama could be used for the stopovers.

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