Record Exports From Brazil Undercut Coffee Prices – CoffeeTalk

Coffee prices fell on Thursday due to record-high coffee exports from Brazil, with Brazil’s 2024 arabica coffee exports jumping by 20% y/y to a record 37 million bags and 2024 robusta coffee exports surged by 98% y/y to a record 9.4 million bags. Arabica coffee reached a 3-week high on Monday due to dry conditions in Brazil, with the biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais receiving 29.6 mm of rain last week.

On Wednesday, robusta coffee posted a 2-week low on signs of bigger supplies from Vietnam, with Vietnam Dec coffee exports surging by 102.6% y/y to 127,655 MT. ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 2-1/2 year high last Monday of 993,562 bags and a 3-month high last Wednesday of 4,415 lots.

Coffee prices rallied sharply last month due to the outlook for a smaller Brazilian coffee crop. March arabica posted a contract high, and the Dec coffee nearest-futures contract (Z24) posted a record high. Volcafe cut its 2025/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil.

Consultancy group Safras & Mercado estimated the 2025/26 Brazilian coffee crop at 62.45 million bags, down -5% y/yr. Safras predicts that arabica output will fall -15% yr/yr to 38.35 million bags due to drought and that robusta production will be 24.1 million bags.

The impact of dry El Nino weather last year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since last April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica coffee crop.

Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by reduced robusta production, with Vietnam’s coffee production dropping by -20% to 1.472 MMT due to drought. The USDA FAS projected that Vietnam’s robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season.

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