Brazil's Coffee Crop Expected To Decline By As Much As 6.4% – CoffeeTalk

Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop is expected to decline by 3% to 6.4% compared to the previous cycle, mainly due to dry weather in 2024. Dutch bank Rabobank forecasts a 6.4% drop in Brazil’s coffee output to 62.8 million 60-kilogram bags, below the 67.1 million bags forecasted in the 2024/25 crop. Arabica coffee production is expected to decline by 13.6% to 38 million bags, while robusta output is expected to grow 7.3% to reach a record 24.7 million bags. The dry weather in 2024 significantly affected flowering and arabica coffee production, but excellent yields are estimated for robusta coffee. Bank Itau BBA’s coffee production forecast is 64.4 million bags, 3% lower than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 66.4 million bags for the 2024/25 cycle. The bank expects a 10% reduction in arabica production to 40.9 million bags and a 12% increase in robusta, totaling 23.5 million bags.

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