Brazilian Crop Concerns Causing Arabica Prices To Climb – CoffeeTalk

Coffee prices today are mixed, with Arabica coffee prices rising due to concerns about a smaller Brazilian coffee crop and robusta coffee under pressure. Rabobank predicted Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica coffee crop would fall -13.6% y/y to 38.1 million bags, while robusta coffee is under pressure after Rabobank predicted it would climb +7.3% y/y to a record 24.7 million bags. The strength of the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is also supportive of coffee prices, as the real climbed to a 3-week high against the dollar today, discouraging export selling from Brazil’s coffee producers.

Above-normal rain in Brazil is boosting soil moisture levels and is bearish for coffee prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil’s biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais received 38.7 mm of rain in the week ended April 19, or 490% of the historical average. An increase in current coffee supplies is bearish for prices, as ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 2-1/4 month high last Friday of 822,021 bags.

The ongoing global trade turmoil is undercutting most commodity prices, including coffee, and there is concern that coffee demand will suffer as higher tariffs increase coffee prices for US consumers. Supply fears are supportive of coffee prices, with Cecafe reporting that Brazil’s March green coffee exports fell -26% y/y to 2.95 million bags. Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags.

Robusta coffee has support from reduced robusta production, with Vietnam’s coffee production dropping by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association cut its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags from a December estimate of 28 million bags.

The USDA’s biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices, with the FAS projecting a +4.0% y/y increase in world coffee production in 2024/25, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production and a +7.5% increase in robusta production.

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