A New Experiment Could Finally Unlock the Climate-Proof Coffee of the Future

Arabica coffee, the most widely consumed and best-tasting coffee species, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. A 2022 study from the Zurich University of Applied Sciences projects that the amount of land suitable for growing it will fall more than 50% by 2050. As coffee’s precarity is rising, so is demand, with global consumption estimated to double by mid-century. The industry has been scrambling for possible fixes, including non-arabica coffee species and caffeine-infused alternatives made from substances like chickpeas and date seeds.

For coffee purists and millions of farming families like David Ngibuini’s, the most promising solution might be a newfound push to improve adaptability and yields of arabica itself. Innovea, a new project led by the nonprofit World Coffee Research, seeks to supercharge the breeding of improved arabica varieties — unique variations of a given species that have been selected for certain characteristics. In an industry that has long neglected to fund research and development, Innovea is widely considered to be the most sweeping coffee breeding initiative in decades.

Arabica is especially picky, performing best in areas with moderate rainfall and temperatures between 59 and 82 degrees Fahrenheit. As temperatures warm, many expect cultivation to shift to even higher altitudes, but this has its limits. The higher up you go, the less land there is available, and farmers shifting upwards are more likely to encounter steep slopes or protected conservation areas.

Arabica is so fragile in part because its gene pool is surprisingly narrow. The 58 varieties that are widely grown today are all derived from a subset of wild forest coffee native to Ethiopia, which was brought by Arab traders to Yemen in the 15th century and later spread by European colonizers across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. New variety development, which involves breeding over several generations, can take decades. Coffee R&D, like much crop innovation, is largely state-financed, and in the low- and middle-income countries where arabica is grown, governments are often strapped for cash. A study commissioned by WCR in 2023 estimates that just $115 million is invested in coffee R&D each year, less than one-tenth of one percent of coffee’s $200 billion retail value.

The vigor of this year’s harvest masks a deeper, existential struggle for Arabica coffee, which has been farmed in Kenya since the 19th century. By improving the adaptability and yields of arabica, the coffee industry can provide more climate-resilient options for farmers.

Coffee has been a relatively uninvested crop since the early 20th century, with importers, roasters, and retailers having a reliable supply of beans. However, in 2012, climate change led to an outbreak of coffee leaf rust, a debilitating fungus that would affect Latin America for years. A group of coffee businesses established World Coffee Research (WCR) in 2012 to facilitate collaborative R&D. WCR began by conducting trials of existing varieties and developing new “F1 hybrids,” which are genetically distant but higher yielding but more expensive to cultivate.

Innovea, launched in 2022, builds upon both efforts by creating 30 novel crosses from 16 parent varieties chosen based on their performance in prior trials. After six years, the new trees will mature and produce several harvests of their own, many of which will have undesirable traits. Some will be high yielding, disease resistant, and taste good, and will be moved to further trials or used to make new crosses that could result in even better trait combinations.

The breeding is done using traditional methods, but it is being aided by low-cost genetic sequencing technology, which allows WCR and partner breeders to correlate observed traits with plant DNA and make new crosses faster. The idea is to identify the genes we’re looking for and move on with those plants instead of others.

Innovea is not the only private sector-funded coffee breeding effort; at least two big industry players, Nestlé and Starbucks, have variety-development programs in-house. What makes Innovea stand out is its scale and its collaborative approach. WCR expects to make 100 new pre-commercial varieties available for trials by 2030 and will work with partner governments to release a subset of those to farmers as soon as 2036. Ultimately, these “finished varieties” will be owned by governments, rather than by WCR or its financial backers.

While new variety development is vital to the quest to make coffee more resilient, experts argue that it’s not a panacea. As coffee growing regions warm, innovations in breeding will need to be combined with adaptations in farming practices, like the introduction of “shade trees” and efforts to regenerate depleted soils. Coffee growers around the world, especially at the 12.5 million smallholder farms that produce 60 percent of the world’s supply, will continue to face a global market defined by wild swings in price that at times mean selling harvests for below the cost of production.R

Arabica coffee, the most widely consumed and best-tasting coffee species, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. A 2022 study from the Zurich University of Applied Sciences projects that the amount of land suitable for growing it will fall more than 50% by 2050. As coffee’s precarity is rising, so is demand, with global consumption estimated to double by mid-century. The industry has been scrambling for possible fixes, including non-arabica coffee species and caffeine-infused alternatives made from substances like chickpeas and date seeds.

For coffee purists and millions of farming families like David Ngibuini’s, the most promising solution might be a newfound push to improve adaptability and yields of arabica itself. Innovea, a new project led by the nonprofit World Coffee Research, seeks to supercharge the breeding of improved arabica varieties — unique variations of a given species that have been selected for certain characteristics. In an industry that has long neglected to fund research and development, Innovea is widely considered to be the most sweeping coffee breeding initiative in decades.

Arabica is especially picky, performing best in areas with moderate rainfall and temperatures between 59 and 82 degrees Fahrenheit. As temperatures warm, many expect cultivation to shift to even higher altitudes, but this has its limits. The higher up you go, the less land there is available, and farmers shifting upwards are more likely to encounter steep slopes or protected conservation areas.

Arabica is so fragile in part because its gene pool is surprisingly narrow. The 58 varieties that are widely grown today are all derived from a subset of wild forest coffee native to Ethiopia, which was brought by Arab traders to Yemen in the 15th century and later spread by European colonizers across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. New variety development, which involves breeding over several generations, can take decades. Coffee R&D, like much crop innovation, is largely state-financed, and in the low- and middle-income countries where arabica is grown, governments are often strapped for cash. A study commissioned by WCR in 2023 estimates that just $115 million is invested in coffee R&D each year, less than one-tenth of one percent of coffee’s $200 billion retail value.

In conclusion, the vigor of this year’s harvest masks a deeper, existential struggle for Arabica coffee, which has been farmed in Kenya since the 19th century. By improving the adaptability and yields of arabica, the coffee industry can provide more climate-resilient options for farmers.

Coffee has been a relatively uninvested crop since the early 20th century, with importers, roasters, and retailers having a reliable supply of beans. However, in 2012, climate change led to an outbreak of coffee leaf rust, a debilitating fungus that would affect Latin America for years. A group of coffee businesses established World Coffee Research (WCR) in 2012 to facilitate collaborative R&D. WCR began by conducting trials of existing varieties and developing new “F1 hybrids,” which are genetically distant but higher yielding but more expensive to cultivate.

Innovea, launched in 2022, builds upon both efforts by creating 30 novel crosses from 16 parent varieties chosen based on their performance in prior trials. After six years, the new trees will mature and produce several harvests of their own, many of which will have undesirable traits. Some will be high yielding, disease resistant, and taste good, and will be moved to further trials or used to make new crosses that could result in even better trait combinations.

The breeding is done using traditional methods, but it is being aided by low-cost genetic sequencing technology, which allows WCR and partner breeders to correlate observed traits with plant DNA and make new crosses faster. The idea is to identify the genes we’re looking for and move on with those plants instead of others.

Innovea is not the only private sector-funded coffee breeding effort; at least two big industry players, Nestlé and Starbucks, have variety-development programs in-house. What makes Innovea stand out is its scale and its collaborative approach. WCR expects to make 100 new pre-commercial varieties available for trials by 2030 and will work with partner governments to release a subset of those to farmers as soon as 2036. Ultimately, these “finished varieties” will be owned by governments, rather than by WCR or its financial backers.

While new variety development is vital to the quest to make coffee more resilient, experts argue that it’s not a panacea. As coffee growing regions warm, innovations in breeding will need to be combined with adaptations in farming practices, like the introduction of “shade trees” and efforts to regenerate depleted soils. Coffee growers around the world, especially at the 12.5 million smallholder farms that produce 60 percent of the world’s supply, will continue to face a global market defined by wild swings in price that at times mean selling harvests for below the cost of production.

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