Climate Change Could Render A Fifth Of Arabica's Growing Areas Unsuitable For Coffee Cultivation By 2050 – CoffeeTalk

Climate change is predicted to cause a significant reduction in suitable arabica coffee growing areas, with Rabobank forecasting that by 2050, 20% of current cultivation areas may become unsuitable. Currently, 8% of the arabica-growing regions, which are located in countries such as Brazil, Colombia, and Honduras, face unsuitable cultivation conditions that require higher investment and yield lower outputs. The report categorizes crop areas based on present and forecasted climate conditions into four categories, ranging from very suitable to unsuitable.

According to Rabobank, rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to create unpredictable coffee growing conditions, potentially increasing the frequency of climate-related shocks such as droughts, heat waves, and heavy rainfall. This variability in climate conditions is likely to jeopardize the reliability of coffee supply.

In Brazil, the leading producer of arabica coffee, it is anticipated that while most of the loss in suitability will occur outside existing production zones, there will be increased marginality in key states, which may affect areas known for high yields. Currently, suitable regions in Brazil yield an average of 32.6 bags of coffee per hectare, compared to about 28 bags in unsuitable zones. However, the report predicts a decline in the percentage of Brazil’s coffee harvest occurring in suitable areas from 81% to 62% by 2050, potentially leading to substantial drops in overall output.

In Colombia, the proportion of arabica grown in suitable areas is expected to fall from 56% to 45%, while Honduras may see its suitable area share plummet from 53% to just 12%. Conversely, the report notes that some coffee-growing regions, particularly Ethiopia, may benefit. In Ethiopia, the share of arabica crops cultivated on suitable land is projected to increase to 50%, up from the current 39%, indicating a mixed impact of climate change across different coffee-producing countries.

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