Brazil's 2026 Coffee Harvest Set To Reach Historic Peak – CoffeeTalk

Brazil’s coffee production is projected to reach a historical peak of 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2026 harvest, representing a 17.1% increase from the prior year, as reported by the national crop agency Conab. This growth is primarily driven by Arabica coffee, which is expected to increase by over 20% to 44.1 million bags, benefiting from its biennial “on-year” cycle. Additionally, robusta coffee output is anticipated to rise by 6.4% to 22.1 million bags. Conab attributes this optimistic forecast to favorable weather conditions throughout the crop cycle, the adoption of advanced technologies, and effective management practices which collectively enhance productivity. Overall, yields are expected to rise by 12.4% compared to the last harvest, reaching 34.2 bags per hectare. The previous harvest yielded 56.5 million bags, while the former record stood at 63.1 million bags set in 2020.

Regionally, the leading arabica-producing state, Minas Gerais, is expected to see a notable 26% increase in total coffee production, totaling 32.4 million bags, primarily due to improved rain distribution and enhanced plant health. Similarly, Espirito Santo, the top producer of robusta (canephora), is projected to witness a 9% rise in combined output to 19 million bags, also aided by favorable rainfall. Despite the anticipated record output, coffee prices are forecasted to remain high due to escalating consumer demand. The USDA predicts global coffee consumption will reach an unprecedented 173.9 million bags, while ending stocks are expected to decline for the fifth consecutive year to 20.1 million bags, indicating a tightening supply situation.

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