Brazil's Hopes To Overtake Vietnam As Leading Producer Of Robusta Coffee – CoffeeTalk

Brazil is aiming to surpass Vietnam as the leading producer of robusta coffee, driven by its climate resilience and increasing global demand, according to a report by Rabobank. The projection indicates that Brazil’s robusta coffee production will rise to approximately 24.7 million 60-kg bags by 2025, a significant increase from 19 million bags in 2020, although Vietnam is forecasted to produce around 30 million bags in the 2025/26 period. Robusta coffee, known for its stronger taste and higher caffeine content compared to arabica, is mainly used in instant coffee and various coffee blends, while arabica is favored by premium brands like Starbucks.

The robusta crop displays remarkable resilience against climate challenges such as heat, drought, and disease, making it more appealing as climate change adversely affects traditional coffee cultivation. Over the past five decades, temperatures in crucial Brazilian coffee-growing areas have increased by 1.3 to 1.6 degrees Celsius, while average rainfall has diminished by 93 to 211 millimeters. To mitigate these issues, irrigation has become essential, with around 71% of Brazil’s robusta fields currently irrigated, a figure expected to expand to 363,800 hectares by 2040.

The initial investment required for robusta plantations is significant, estimated at $15,700 per hectare, but the crop’s superior productivity—yielding nearly 170% more per hectare than arabica—facilitates cost recovery within about four years. Additionally, Brazil possesses approximately 28 million hectares of degraded pastureland that can be converted to agriculture, allowing for expansion without causing deforestation. Furthermore, the exemption of instant coffee from EU deforestation regulations is projected to enhance demand for robusta products, potentially accelerating Brazil’s production growth.

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