Coffee Cost Crisis Estimated To Ease With Predictions Of 30% Fall By End Of 2025 – CoffeeTalk

Arabica coffee futures are expected to fall by around 30% by the end of 2025, with recent record high prices expected to curb demand and early signs pointing to a bumper Brazilian crop next year. A Reuters poll showed a median forecast for arabica prices at the end of 2025 of $2.95 per pound, a drop of 30% from Wednesday’s close and a loss of 6% from end-2024.

The rise in prices has been fuelled by the prospect of a smaller arabica crop in top grower Brazil in the upcoming 2025/26 season. The median forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica coffee crop in the poll was 40.55 million bags, down from the prior season’s 43.4 million. However, several participants pointed to the potential for a larger crop in the 2026/27 season.

Arabica coffee prices were among the strongest performing commodity markets in 2024, rising by about 70% and continuing to climb this year, hitting a record high of $4.2995 on February 11. Brazil’s total crop was seen falling to 64.6 million bags from 66.4 million in 2024/25, with a rise in robusta (conillon) production partly offseting the fall in arabica output. Prices for robusta coffee were seen ending 2025 at $4,200 a metric ton, down 28% from Wednesday’s close, to post an annual loss of 14%.

Brazil’s robusta crop was seen rising in 2025/26 to 24.5 million bags, up from 21 million in the previous season. A larger harvest was also forecast in top robusta producer Vietnam of 29 million bags, up from 28 million in 2024/25.

Read More @ Reuters