Consumers to ditch cafes for coffee at home amid rising prices, says ICO

In the coming months, the executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) predicts that consumers will choose to drink coffee at home rather than in restaurants and cafes due to rising inflation and recessionary risks.

Vanusia Nogueira stated that the international coffee supply has not been able to meet demand at a time when inventories are low, attributing the lower global harvest in the 2021/22 coffee year to climate change.

In an interview with Reuters in the Colombian capital of Bogota, she stated, “We have numerous climate issues in the top producing regions.” Due to climate-related issues, growers were unable to produce more coffee despite rising prices, she said.

Total production for the 2021/22 coffee year amounted to 167.2 million 60-kilogram bags, down 2.1% from the previous coffee year’s 170.83 million bags, according to ICO statistics, while global coffee consumption rose 3.3% to 170.3 million bags.

Nogueira forecasts that coffee prices will remain unchanged in 2023.

As was the case during the coronavirus pandemic, she anticipates an increase in home consumption and a decrease in cafes and restaurants, but stable overall sales and consumption.

“I don’t think there will be an impact in terms of volume, but I do think there will be an impact in terms of how coffee is consumed and its quality,” she said, adding that specialty coffee producers could be the hardest hit.

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