Brazil's Successful Harvest Continues To Bring Relief To Coffee Prices – CoffeeTalk

Coffee prices are plummeting today, with arabica falling to a 5-month low and robusta sinking to a 1-year low due to an improved supply outlook with Brazil’s ongoing coffee harvest. Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year’s comparable level of 37% but in line with the 5-year average of 35%. The breakdown showed that 49% of the robusta harvest and 26% of the arabica harvest were complete as of June 11. Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced that its members reported the coffee harvest was 13.7% complete, compared with 13.6% at the same time last year.

Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past seven weeks due to concerns about higher coffee production and ample supplies. On May 19, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to 31 million bags. Recent rainfall in Brazil has eased dryness concerns and is weighing on coffee prices. Robusta coffee prices have underlying support as ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1-month low today of 5,150 lots. In a bearish factor for arabica prices, however, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-1/2 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 and were modestly below that high at 859,389 bags as of Tuesday.

Small coffee exports from Brazil are bullish for prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s May green coffee exports fell -36% y/y to 2.8 million bags. Robusta coffee has support from reduced robusta production. The USDA’s biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. The FAS projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.0% y/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags.

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